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• Published on: 2010
• Binding: Hardcover

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[N380.Ebook] Download PDF Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference, by Lawrence N. Dworsky

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An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives

Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances.

Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as:

• How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights

• Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage

• How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods

Seemingly random events—coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law—are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and "the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics.

Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making.

• Sales Rank: #2927016 in Books
• Published on: 2008-04-18
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.30" h x .68" w x 6.20" l, 1.06 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 328 pages

Review
"The book is a very good tool for students and specialists in different areas who do not like advanced statistics, but are obliged to understand, a least partly, the process of decision making." (International Statistical Review, December 2008)

"The fact that Dworsky uses examples from many fields, and discusses topics not usually covered in beginning course, may also increase student interest in pursuing statistics at a more advanced level." (MAA Reviews, July 2008)

From the Back Cover

An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives

Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances.

Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as:

• How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights

• Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage

• How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods

Seemingly random events—coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law—are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and "the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics.

Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making.

About the Author

Lawrence N. Dworsky, PhD, is a former corporate research lab director at Motorola, Inc., where he was also a member of the Science Advisory Board. He has also served as a consultant to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Littelfuse Corp., and HRL Laboratories, LLC. A Fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, Dr. Dworsky has held academic positions at Columbia University, Northern Illinois University, and Florida Atlantic University.

Most helpful customer reviews

8 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
Probability discussed with light mathematics
By David J. Aldous
Written in what I call the "textbook lite" style, intermediate between college texts teaching one to do math probability calculations in systematic detail, and the "popular science" style with words but no math. The contents might be put into 4 categories.

(1) Initial chapters give clear and unhurried explanations (illustrated by graphs and tables) of the basic math surrounding probability distributions, averages and standard deviations, and how the Normal distribution arises in dice-throwing or random walk.

(2) Scattered throughout the book are the classics of elementary math probability: the Binomial and Poisson distributions; conditional probability; Bayes rule illustrated by medical diagnosis; the birthday problem; Monte Hall; Benford's law and Simpson's paradox; gamblers ruin; analysis of games such as double-up-when-you-lose, and the Deal-or-no-Deal TV show.

(3) "Popular science" topics such as social networks, stock markets, statistical mechanics, deterministic chaos.

The preceding material is presented in a clear and readable way, though not markedly distinct from many previous books of varying styles, for instance (in the same "textbook lite" style) Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives or Chance: The Life of Games & the Game of Life. The only part that struck me as somewhat distinctive was a fourth category, starting with a discussion of random number generators, and proceding to descriptions of and analysis of simple stochastic models for several phenomena, such as: driving through a series of traffic signals, waiting in a doctor's office, observing some birds flying in a forest and trying to estimate the total number of birds.

Overall: well-written, worth reading if you haven't seen such material before, but no particular individual vision and so not a notable addition to existing literature. Like most existing books it is content to repeat theory without critical examination of real-world applicability or significance. The subtitle is misleading -- it's not specifically about future prediction. And at $64 for a 300-page paperback it is considerably more expensive than many alternative books I have reviewed, such as Chance: The Life of Games & the Game of Life or Chance Rules: An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics.

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[O270.Ebook] Ebook Download The Sheikh's Batmobile: In Pursuit of American Pop Culture in the Muslim World, by Richard Poplak

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What happens to our pop culture when it meets another culture head-on—especially one that, according to some, is completely at odds with our own?

In The Sheikh’s Batmobile, pop culture commentator Richard Poplak sets out on an unusual two-year odyssey. His mission is to see what becomes of his and America’s obsessions—pop songs and sitcoms, Hollywood movies and shoot-'em-up video games, muscle cars and punk music—when they make their way into the Muslim world.

Over the course of his journey, Poplak gets body-slammed by WWE fans in Afghanistan, hangs out with hip-hop artists in Palestine, headbangs to heavy metal in Cairo, discovers a world of extreme makeovers in Beirut, bowls with the chief of police in small-town Kazakhstan, and encounters a mysterious Texan who builds rocket-propelled Batmobiles for a clientele of sheikhs.

With uproarious humor and keen cultural insight, Poplak asks some vital questions: How is American pop culture consumed and reinterpreted in the Islamic world? What does that say about how we are viewed by young Muslims? And can Homer Simpson bridge the divisions that are tearing our world apart?

• Sales Rank: #1622760 in Books
• Published on: 2010-08-17
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 8.98" h x .97" w x 6.40" l, .95 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 384 pages

Review
Praise for The Sheikh's Batmobile

"With insight, humor, and compassion, The Sheikh's Batmobile puts a nail in the coffin of 'Clash of Civilizations' theory. The author and subjects are equally human. If you see Ayaan Hirsi Ali, throw this book at her." —Michael Muhammad Knight, author of The Taqwacores and Journey to the End of Islam

“Poplak’s expertly-researched and beautifully-written book is one of the most important documents of the post-9/11 world.” —The National Postt

“I would read Poplak if he wrote about watching paint dry. He is a gifted addition to the exploding and increasingly sloppy literary non-fiction genre. Dark, funny, self-deprecating and poetic, Poplak is a punk Graham Greene both exploiting and being exploited by the cultures he inhabits.” —The Globe and Mail

“A heroic feat of research, analysis, and on-the-ground reportage . . . At the very least, The Sheikh’s Batmobile should shatter the Western stereotype of the Muslim world as repressive and stagnant.” —Quill and Quire

“Poplak avoids making easy connections . . . his de-embedded journalism is always open-minded and captures the uncanny perfectly.” —Eye Weekly

“Humorous, astute and vivid . . . The Sheikh’s Batmobile will leave you itching to travel, giggling and glued to YouTube, looking up references. The book is less about how Muslims view Americans as it is about discovering a shared lexicon between two cultures. Poplak’s view of popculture is nuanced, as it emerges as a mutating entity crossing national and ideological boundaries.” —The Coast

“This is a great book and despite its lighthearted title and subject matter it’s a serious book. It’s an important book too, because it promotes understanding and leaves the reader with hope that at a human level, and at a creative level, the kids are all right.” —Winnipeg Free Press

“If . . . you’re willing to join the author on his irreverent excursions to dictators’ palaces, blaring Egyptian heavy metal sessions, concerts preempted by Kalashnikov fire, and secret Batmobile laboratories (yes, the book does live up to its name), then you will doubtlessly ease right into Poplak’s narrative . . . The book is not a magnifying glass searching for Western brushstrokes on an Islamic canvas, but rather a kaleidoscope that bounces the reader's assumptions and expectations off the colorful mirrors of zestful narrative and impressive legwork.” —Wiretap Magazine

“A fast-paced and culturally savvy look at a section of the Muslim population underrepresented, if not entirely ignored, by Western media.” —Open Book: Toronto

“In the riotous, fearless, and very funny tradition of Hunter S. Thompson and Jon Ronson, Richard Poplak takes us through the looking glass and into an upside down, funhouse mirror pop culture universe where Homer Simpson drinks juice out of a beer can, batmobiles are custom-designed in a desert lair and Islamic children spontaneously recreate the video for Lionel Richie’s ‘Hello.’ In the process, Poplak gives us a mantra that unites the West and the East, the secular and the sacred: ‘Fuck you, Shrek, you big green motherfucker.’” —Nathan Rabin, Head Writer, The A.V Club, author, The Big Rewind and My Year of Flops

“Whether dissecting Indonesian punk bands or the eternal wisdom of Magnum, P.I., Poplak is everything you want in a cultural interpreter—funny, frank and utterly incapable of spewing mass market pabulum. Poplak gets beyond the cheap, superficial observations lesser writers bring to his subject, revealing himself as a genuine thinker who delivers original insight and laughs in every chapter.” —Chuck Thompson, author of Smile When You’re Lying: Confessions of a Rogue Travel Writer

About the Author
Richard Poplak was born in Johannesburg, South Africa, in 1973 and immigrated to Canada with his family in 1989. A co-founder of the successful Canadian music label 2wars & A Revolution Records, Richard is also a trained filmmaker and has directed numerous music videos, earning five nominations at the 2005 MuchMusic Video Awards. Richard has written for various publications in Canada and South Africa, including Toronto Life, Canadian Living, and CBC Online. He is the author of the acclaimed Ja, No, Man: Growing Up White in Apartheid-era South Africa and most recently The Sheikh's Batmobile: In Pursuit of American Pop Culture In The Muslim World.

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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
A little uneven, but ultimately worth while
By Keith Boyea
The Sheikh's Batmobile is part travelogue, part cultural investigation, and part personal exploration. Mr. Poplak visits several Muslim countries searching for the consequences of the hegemony of Western popular cultural in the region. I'm not quite sure that's right though: It is almost as if he is exploring how Western popular culture manifests itself in Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, the UAE, Indonesia, Iran, Afghanistan, and others (I know I'm missing a few.)

The book is often funny, and Mr. Poplak has a penchant for finding the humor and absurdity in the ways in which American popular culture is twisted, changed, and manipulated in the Muslim world. The best chapters are the ones on the Arabic version of the Simpsons and the WWE loving kids in Afghanistan.

Some of the chapters are a little less interesting--the death metal scene in Indonesia sticks out as one of these--but the book does a fairly good job of presenting the issue. One scene in particular stuck out for me: The author was discussing the Arabic version of the Simpsons with the producer. The Arabic version scrubbed out some of the social commentary that makes the Simpsons so funny and popular in the United States. The Arabic producer asked the author (I'm paraphrasing here) "Is that all we have, entertainment?"

I've been asking myself that question many times since reading it, especially in the face of the upcoming royal wedding, Donald Trump, and the other inanities presented to us as news. It is surprising--I found an insight to our own culture in a book trying to find insights in how our culture impacts Muslim culture.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Louise
I happened to come across Richard Poplak's "The Sheikh's Batmobile" at a local used book store a while back. It wasn't a book I was familiar with but the cover looked interesting enough and I decided to take the gamble. I'm genuinely glad I did as I found Poplak's writing to be some of the most insightful, nuanced and entertaining commentary on the Islamic world that I've read to date.

A pop culture commentator by trade, Poplak visits nearly 20 Muslim-majority countries over the span of two years in the hopes of viewing firsthand how the Western pop culture he loves has found its way to, and uniquely ingrained itself in, the Dar al-Islam.

Perhaps Poplak's greatest accomplishment was his ability to humanize those he encountered. He refuses to fall into the easy but tired, Orientalist stereotypes and one-dimensional characters that many Middle East observers, intentionally or otherwise, so often seem to do. Throughout "The Sheikh's Batmobile," from Libya to Indonesia and a lot of places in between, the author finds the similarities that bind us far more than the differences that divide our cultures.

In times of such turmoil Poplak's work reads as a refreshing reminder of our common, shared humanity.

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Butterworth-Heinemann’s CIM Coursebooks have been designed to match the syllabus and learning outcomes of our new qualifications and should be useful aids in helping students understand the complexities of marketing. The discussion and practical application of theories and concepts, with relevant examples and case studies, should help readers make immediate use of their knowledge and skills gained from the qualifications.’
Professor Keith Fletcher, Director of Education, The Chartered Institute of Marketing

‘Here in Dubai, we have used the Butterworth-Heinemann Coursebooks in their various forms since the very beginning and have found them most useful as a source of recommended reading material as well as examination preparation.’
Alun Epps, CIM Centre Co-ordinator, Dubai University College, United Arab Emirates

Butterworth-Heinemann’s official CIM Coursebooks are the definitive companions to the CIM professional marketing qualifications. The only study materials to be endorsed by The Chartered Institute of Marketing (CIM), all content is carefully structured to match the syllabus and is written in collaboration with the CIM faculty.

Each chapter is packed full of case studies, study tips and activities to test your learning and understanding as you go along.

•The coursebooks are the only study guide reviewed and approved by CIM (The Chartered Institute of Marketing).
•Each book is crammed with a range of learning objectives, cases, questions, activities, definitions, study tips and summaries to support and test your understanding of the theory.
•Past examination papers and examiners’ reports are available online to enable you to practise what has been learned and help prepare for the exam and pass first time.
•Extensive online materials support students and tutors at every stage.

Based on an understanding of student and tutor needs gained in extensive research, online materials have been designed specifically for CIM students and created exclusively for Butterworth-Heinemann. Check out exam dates on the Online Calendar, see syllabus links for each course, and access extra mini case studies to cement your understanding. Explore marketingonline.co.uk and access online versions of the coursebooks and further reading from Elsevier and Butterworth-Heinemann.

INTERACTIVE, FLEXIBLE, ACCESSIBLE
ANY TIME, ANY PLACE
www.marketingonline.co.uk

• Sales Rank: #3406120 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Routledge
• Published on: 2009-08-19
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.50" h x 7.25" w x .50" l, 1.25 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 256 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

About the Author
Housden is the head of the Division of Marketing at the University of Greenwich.

Housden is the head of the Division of Marketing at the University of Greenwich.

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CIM Coursebook: Project Management in Marketing, by Elwyn Cox, Matthew Housden, Lynn Parkinson PDF

CIM Coursebook: Project Management in Marketing, by Elwyn Cox, Matthew Housden, Lynn Parkinson PDF

CIM Coursebook: Project Management in Marketing, by Elwyn Cox, Matthew Housden, Lynn Parkinson PDF

CIM Coursebook: Project Management in Marketing, by Elwyn Cox, Matthew Housden, Lynn Parkinson PDF

[N764.Ebook] Fee Download Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern

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• Sales Rank: #2041271 in Books
• Published on: 2009-01-08
• Released on: 2009-01-08
• Ingredients: Example Ingredients
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 8.44" h x .22" w x 5.22" l, .15 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 48 pages

About the Author
Roger Price and Leonard Stern created Mad Libs in the 1950s and the series has been a favorite among kids of all ages ever since. Although Roger Price passed away in 1990, Leonard Stern keeps the tradition alive by writing new Mad Libs all the time.

Roger Price and Leonard Stern are both well known for their comedy writing. In the 1950s Roger Price created and developed cartoons called Droodles, which were turned into a television show. Before that Price worked with Bob Hope on a newspaper humor column, and he even appeared on Broadway in Tickets, Please!
Leonard Stern has an equally colorful and varied history. Before co-founding Price Stern Sloan with Roger Price (Sloan came later), Stern was a successful television writer. In addition to his creative involvement with over twenty television series and over ten motion pictures, Stern worked with Jackie Gleason in New York writing the Honeymooners. He also wrote for the Phil Silvers Show, The Steve Allen Show, and wrote and produced the original Get Smart television series. Recently, Stern published A Martian Wouldn't Say That, which compiled weird and wacky memos written by people in the entertainment industry. Currently, Stern serves as a senior vice president of Price Stern Sloan, where he still writes those hilarious Mad Libs.

copyright © 2000 by Penguin Putnam Books for Young Readers. All rights reserved.

Most helpful customer reviews

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Great fun for everyone!
By eab
I bought several of these as a little add-ons to Christmas gifts for family members. I have heard back that they were very much appreciated and enjoyed, especially on a long flight they went on shortly after receiving. The feedback was tremendously positive from people ages 18-50 and, frankly, at 62, I still love them myself. So much better than mindless vidoes and repetitive on-line gaming. This product fosters people-to-people interaction and amusement...something this society needs more of, IMO. The varied selection of interests made it fun to match to individuals. Great fun!

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
I am assuming that he liked it because I never heard him express any complaints ...
By Amazon Customer
I can recall growing up as a child and always loving 'Mad Libs'. I bought this 'Mad Lib' book for my son so that he could appreciate
exactly what I did growing up. I am assuming that he liked it because I never heard him express any complaints about this book.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Hilarious!
By Blast from the Past
This is SO perfect for an office or retirement party opener / mixer! (All you do is have one person write and have them ask 1 person at a time for a noun / verb / whatever else the story asks for and then ask the next person for one of the items on the list and so on until the story is completed. Then read aloud.) The stories are hilarious!! I HIGHLY recommend.

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Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern PDF
Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern EPub
Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern Doc
Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern iBooks
Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern rtf
Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern Mobipocket
Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern Kindle

Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern PDF

Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern PDF

Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern PDF

Who Moved My Cubicle? (Adult Mad Libs), by Roger Price, Leonard Stern PDF